The Level And Dynamics Of Morbidity By The Main Classes Of Diseases And Their Prediction In The Able-Bodied Population Of The Turkestan Region
Main Article Content
Keywords
morbidity, neoplasms, blood circulation, trauma, disease of the endocrine system
Abstract
The scientific article presents the results of a study of the incidence of the leading classes of diseases their prediction of the able-bodied population of the Turkestan region (per 100 thousand population).
The purpose of the Study. Analysis of morbidity indicators for the main classes of diseases and their prediction in the Turkestan region for the period 2011-2020.
Materials and Methods. The paper uses retrospective data for the period 2011-2020 for the Turkestan region.
Results. When studying the levels and dynamics of morbidity of neoplasms, diseases of the circulatory system, injuries and poisoning and other effects, diseases of the endocrine system, morbidity of the nervous system, morbidity of the eye and its appendages, morbidity of the ear and mastoid process of the able-bodied population of the Turkestan region (retrospective data for the period 2011-2020) with their forecast for 2021-2023 (per 100 thousand of the total population) is characterized by a weak and medium-pronounced self-oscillatory trend.
Conclusion. Thus, drawing conclusions from predictive models based on retrospective data on the incidence of the leading classes of diseases in the working-age population, it can be argued that there is an obvious visible decrease in the predicted levels in the short term. Whether this fact is related to certain reforms in the field of the healthcare system in terms of improving diagnostics, clinical and preventive work will depend on the results of deeper research in the industry.
References
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42. Buleshov, M.A.,Buleshova, A.M.,Tuktibayeva, S.A.,Ilimova, A.K.,Chulpanov, U.Y. Scientific substantiation of medico-social prevention of digestive diseases in schoolchildren on the basis of the prediction table. Electronic Journal of General Medicine, 2019, 16(6), em180
2. Demographic situation in Kazakhstan. The population of Kazakhstan is aging: the number of elderly people has increased by 4% over the year, to 1.4 million people. http://www.zakon.kz /
3. M. Y. Soloviev, O. M. Kurashvili. The influence of the lifestyle factor on the health of the population // Chief Physician of the South of Russia. 2016. №2 (49).
4. Fitzmaurice C and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Oncol. 2019 Dec 1;5(12):1749-1768. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.2996. Erratum in: JAMA Oncol. 2020 Mar 1;6(3):444. Erratum in: JAMA Oncol. 2020 May 1;6(5):789. Erratum in:
JAMA Oncol. 2021 Mar 1;7(3):466. PMID: 31560378; PMCID: PMC6777271.
5. by Melonie Heron, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics. Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports. Volume 68, Number 6. June 24, 2019. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf
6. Kemelbekov Kanatzhan, Zhumabekov Zharylkap, Bektenova Gulmira, Baimakhanova Bakhtygul, Askambay Kulzina, Ospanova Elmira, Kuandykov Yerlan, Nazipa Bektibayeva, Venera Makhatova, Arkady Kotlyar. Minimally Invasive Surgical Treatment of Open Ductus Arteriosus in Premature Infants. http://www.sysrevpharm.org/?mno=125899 [Access: March 30, 2021]. doi:10.31838/srp.2020.5.99.
7. Ayazbekov, A., Nurkhasimova, R., Kulbayeva, S., Bolat, K., Kurmanova, A. M., Yeskarayeva, A., Kemelbekov, K. S. (2020). Features of Pregnancy, Childbirth and Postpartum Period of Young Mothers. Electronic Journal of General Medicine, 17(6), em260. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejgm/8459
8. WHO publishes statistics on the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide for the period 2000-2019. https://www.who.int/ru/news/item/09-12-2020-who-reveals-leading-causes-of-death-and-disability-worldwide-2000-2019
9. Haagsma JA et al. The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013. Inj Prev. 2016 Feb;22(1):3-18. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2015-041616. Epub 2015 Dec 3. PMID: 26635210; PMCID: PMC4752630. 10. Khan, M., Grivna, M., Nauman, J., Soteriades, E.S., Chevik, A.A., Hashim, M.J., Govender, R., and Al Azizi, S.R. (2020). Global models of morbidity and mortality from pedestrian traffic injuries by socio-demographic index with forecasting: results of a study of the global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors for 2017. International Journal of Environmental and Public Health Research, 17(6), 2135. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17062135
11. Crowe CS et. al. Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study. Inj Prev. 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i115-i124. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043495. Epub 2020 Mar 13. PMID: 32169973; PMCID: PMC7571361.
12. https://www.who.int/ru/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death
13. https://aipm.kz/ru/novosti-i-sobytiya/2112-vsemirnaya-organizatsiya-zdravookhraneniya-10-vedushchikh-prichin-smerti-v-mire.html
14. European health report 2018. https://www.euro.who.int/en/data-and-evidence/european-health-report/european-health-report-2018
15. Gaeta M, Campanella F, Gentile L, Schifino GM, Capasso L, Bandera F, Banfi G, Arpesella M, Ricci C. European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016. Ann Ig. 2017 May-Jun;29(3):206-217. doi: 10.7416/ai.2017.2148. PMID: 28383612.
16. Siegel RL, Miller KD, Jemal A. Cancer Statistics, 2017. CA Cancer J Clin. 2017 Jan;67(1):7-30. doi: 10.3322/caac.21387. Epub 2017 Jan 5. PMID: 28055103.
17. Melonie Heron, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics. Deaths: Leading Causes for 2015. National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 66, No. 5, November 27, 2017. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_05.pdf
18. Khan SU, Yedlapati SH, Lone AN, Khan MS, Wenger NK, Watson KE, Gulati M, Hays AG, Michos ED. A comparative analysis of premature heart disease- and cancer-related mortality in women in the USA, 1999-2018. Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. 2021 Feb 8:qcaa099. doi: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcaa099. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33555018.
19. Siegel RL, Miller KD, Jemal A. Cancer statistics, 2016. CA Cancer J Clin. 2016 Jan-Feb;66(1):7-30. doi: 10.3322/caac.21332. Epub 2016 Jan 7. PMID: 26742998.
20. Siegel RL, Miller KD, Fuchs HE, Jemal A. Cancer Statistics, 2021. CA Cancer J Clin. 2021 Jan;71(1):7-33. doi: 10.3322/caac.21654. Epub 2021 Jan 12. Erratum in: CA Cancer J Clin. 2021 Jul;71(4):359. PMID: 33433946.
21. Rao Z., Hua J., Li R. et al. Changes in the six-month prevalence of circulatory system diseases among people aged 20 years and older in the period from 2013 to 2018 in Hunan, China. Int J Environment Public Health . 2021; 18 (5): 2599. Published on March 5, 2021 doi: 10.3390 /ijerph18052599
22. Leilei D et.al. The burden of injury in China, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Public Health. 2019 Sep;4(9):e449-e461. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(19)30125-2. PMID: 31493842; PMCID: PMC6739690.
23. Quantum AS, Ming C, Rottmann M, etc. Forecasts of cancer incidence and related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030. CancerMed . 2016; 5 (9): 2649-2656. DOI: 10.1002 / cam4.767
24. Bäckström D, Larsen R, Steinvall I, Fredrikson M, Gedeborg R, Sjöberg F. Deaths caused by injury among people of working age (18-64) are decreasing, while those among older people (64+) are increasing. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg. 2018 Aug;44(4):589-596. doi: 10.1007/s00068-017-0827-1. Epub 2017 Aug 20. PMID: 28825159; PMCID: PMC6096611.
25. Smittenaar CR, Petersen KA, Stewart K, Moitt N. Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035. Br J Cancer. 2016 Oct 25;115(9):1147-1155. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2016.304. Epub 2016 Oct 11. PMID: 27727232; PMCID: PMC5117795.
26. Kingston A, Robinson L, Booth H, Knapp M, Jagger C; MODEM project. Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model. Age Ageing. 2018 May 1;47(3):374-380. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afx201. PMID: 29370339; PMCID: PMC5920286.
27. Yuzkova E.M. Dynamics of morbidity of the population of Russian regions as an indicator of the quality of life of the population.http://www.vectoreconomy.ru/images/publications/2017/12/laboureconomics/Yuzkova.pdf
28. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/dinamika-zabolevaemosti-boleznyami-sistemy-krovoobrascheniya-vzroslogo-naseleniya-rossiyskoy-federatsii-v-2007-2019.29. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/14/06/2021/60c3a4899a79476c883e763d
30. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sovremennye-problemy-travmatizma-v-rossiyskoy-federatsii
31. Report "Public health, health systems and the economic crisis in Europe: implications and implications for policy-making" // WHO Regional Office for Europe - 2013, p. 20
32. Report on the social determinants of health and differences in health indicators in the WHO European Region. // Copenhagen // WHO Regional Office for Europe. 2013 p. 7
33. The State Program for the Development of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan "Densaulyk" for 2016-2019: approved on January 15, 2016, No. 176.
34. E.T. Auezova, A.M. Aringazina. Dynamics Of The Main Epidemiological Indicators Of Oncopathology For The Period 1990-2017. Bulletin of KazNMU No.3-2018. https://kaznmu.kz/press/wp-content/uploads/2018/11
35. Ismailov Zh.K., Syzdykova A.A., Isatayeva N.M., Baiserkin B.S., Tlemisova V.B. the Current Situation Of The Healthcare System of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Materials of the Final Conference of the Project "Technology Transfer And Institutional Reform In The Healthcare Sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan". Manager No. 4 (17) 2015
36. D.S. Yesimov, N.B. Yesimov, N.T. Izmailova. Analysis of health indicators of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2015 and 2016. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/analiz-pokazateley-zdorovya-naseleniya-respubliki-kazahstan-za-2015-i-2016-gody
37. A.M. Dauletbakova, D.K. Ongarova, A.N. Nurbakyt, A.M. Raushanova. Standardized incidence of malignant neoplasms in Kazakhstan. Bulletin of KazNMU No.1-2020.pp.594-597
38. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/epidemiologicheskie-aspekty-zabolevaemosti-zlokachestvennymi-novoobrazovaniyami-v- kazahstane .
39. M.A. Buleshov, S.N. Alipbekova, S.A. Tuktibayeva. Modern Medical And Social Aspects of Morbidity And Mortality Rates in the Working age Population. Vestnik Каznмu #1-2021. file:///C:/Users/Admin/Downloads/modern-medical-and-social-aspects-of-morbidity-and-mortality-rates-in-the-working-age-population.pdf
40. Botasheva L.S. Some aspects of assessing the labor potential of the region. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/separate-aspects-of-assessment-of-labor-potential-of-the-region
41. V.A. Arkhipov, E.S. Mendybaev, A.M. Aringazina. Analysis Of The General Morbidity In 2008-2018 Of The Turkestan Region In Comparison With The Republican Indicators. Bulletin of KazNMU No. 1-2020.
42. Buleshov, M.A.,Buleshova, A.M.,Tuktibayeva, S.A.,Ilimova, A.K.,Chulpanov, U.Y. Scientific substantiation of medico-social prevention of digestive diseases in schoolchildren on the basis of the prediction table. Electronic Journal of General Medicine, 2019, 16(6), em180
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May 17, 2023
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The Level And Dynamics Of Morbidity By The Main Classes Of Diseases And Their Prediction In The Able-Bodied Population Of The Turkestan Region. (2023). Journal of Population Therapeutics and Clinical Pharmacology, 30(11), 431-441. https://doi.org/10.47750/jptcp.2023.30.11.045
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How to Cite
The Level And Dynamics Of Morbidity By The Main Classes Of Diseases And Their Prediction In The Able-Bodied Population Of The Turkestan Region. (2023). Journal of Population Therapeutics and Clinical Pharmacology, 30(11), 431-441. https://doi.org/10.47750/jptcp.2023.30.11.045